11:26:00
Rotherham have 60 per cent chance of survival according to projected stats
Rotherham
have a 60 per cent chance of beating Sky Bet Championship relegation this
season, according to a projected goals model.
The model,
which tracks the attacking, defensive and overall strength of each club based
on the quality of chances they create and allow, predicts the Millers will
finish in 21st position come May.
On the club's current ratings and those of their remaining
opponents, it is probable that the Millers will finish narrowly above MK Dons while Bolton and
Charlton will be cut adrift.
Bristol City are still strong candidates for the drop, while the model
puts Fulham's probability of going down at just under 28 per cent.
Steve Evans’ Leeds, Huddersfield and Blackburn are the only other
candidates to slip into a relegation battle, but at less than 10 per cent that
seems unlikely.
At the other end of the table, Hull and
Middlesbrough both have more than a 70 per cent chance of finishing in the top
two.
The model does not of course does not take into account sides improving
with the addition of new players, nor does it allow for side's raising their
level of performance in clutch games.
It is designed by the Press Association’s data analyst Experimental 3-6-1 and a full explanation of the model can be
found here.